Procrastinet

For the Record

I've been, quietly online and not-so-quietly in person, worried about the economy. Maybe it's a product of sitting, at my dayjob, surrounded by attorneys whose practice group (Structured Finance, aka "Asset Backed Securities," aka "Toxic Waste") has, as one of them said, "fallen off the face of the earth."

Or maybe it's just that I've recently followed a personal pattern by reading very intelligent people intelligently holding forth on just why we're all well and truly hosed. The "why" changes (Y2K! Bird Flu!) but I do seem to have the Civilization-Ending-Panic-Du-Jour Syndrome.

To wit: Calculated Risk. Really, really smart writing (and comments) about the housing/home finance meltdown.

So here's my brief statement of panic, which will cause Procrastimom to let me know that I'm telling myself the wrong Story and thereby helping bring about the reality I fear: the (unanimously acknowledged) credit bubble of the last few years is unwinding.

There's a chance it will go like the S&Ls, where there's a major correction and lots of people lose lots of money and then we all get on with our lives. There's a chance that it will be worse than that, and/or will link up with some geopolitical goodies and we'll have weird/bad shit like the fuel lines in the 70s.

And there's a slim chance that the last decade's worth of our newly global economic system was built entirely on quicksand and is about to suffer "general systemic collapse."

Which would be bad.

For the record, Larry Kudlow (a very conservative Rich Old Man) says there is and will be no recession.

Mike Shedlock, at excellent stock-trader site Minyanville, staunchly disagrees.

UPDATE:

Some news on the upside: all the discussion I've read of the "Freeze Plan" which will probably be announced Thursday has been of the "too little, too late" or the "bandaid on a broken bone" variety. But the current coverage at calculated risk sounds upbeat. Snip:

So asking, in essence, why we are "rewarding" people with the worst credit profiles is, really, missing the point. The point is that the cost of this goes directly to investors in asset-backed securities, and those investors are being asked to forgo 10% (the reset rate) and take 7.70% (the current or start rate). They are not being asked, say, to forgo 7.70% and take 5.70%, which is roughly what it would be if this "freeze" were extended to the significantly-over-660 crowd (Alt-A and prime ARMs).

So far, I'm prepared to believe assurances that this will not involve taxpayer subsidies: the cost of this is, actually, going to be absorbed by investors in mortgage-backed securities. This is why "good credit" borrowers are not going to be "rewarded"--because investors cannot be brought to forgo that much interest. Somebody did the math, and somebody concluded that freezing a rate that is still about 200-250 bps over the 6-month LIBOR isn't going to be a disaster (at least not compared to having to foreclose these things).

Looks like somebody might have figured out something smart the government can do. I hope that's right.

PANIC! (Pre-Bird Flu Edition)

I'm currently researching a future post which will throw my hat into the ring of the H5N1 Avian Flu Pandemic demi-panic (hee hee). As I emailed to my brother, an infectious disease specialist, I'm trying to calibrate between:

a) Make our peace with God;

b) Take some sensible, non-hysterical precautions (buy a hand-crank radio, some canned goods, a Nanomask, etc.);

c) Stay calm, do nothing and feel haughtily superior to everyone who's freaking out about it;

d) other

Once I've made my pick, I'll write all about it. I haven't been able to get my full apocalyptic breakdown-of-life-as-we-know-it panic on since Y2K, and I'm jonesing.

For now, however, this will do JUST FINE. I read about this at BoingBoing last week and I've been throwing up slightly on a regular basis ever since.

Basically, ice in the arctic is melting. There's always an oscillation, as it melts in the summer and re-freezes in the winter, but now there's less in the summer. For the last four years there have been record lows - like, less by an area the size of Texas kind of lows.

This is scary because: part of how the arctic stays frozen is that energy from the sun hits the ice and snow that's already up there and bounces right back off of all that whiteness, adding little heat to the area. When there's less ice, there's less white. When there's less white, there's more dark, which ABSORBS the heat rather than bouncing it off into space. Which heats things up and makes less ice. Feedback loop! Rinse, repeat.

So: it's possible we'll cross a climatological tipping point, and that by the end of this century there will be no summer ice in the arctic. Which will do all sorts of nasty things, including possibly raising sea levels worldwide by 30+ feet. Which is a drag, but imagine our equity when our Park Slope apartment is WATERFRONT!

Go read the piece at BoingBoing, and follow the links in it, if you'd like to help your ulcer along. This is the best summary of the panic, including the money quote:

The demon in me wants to say: Party and make merry. No need now to worry about Kyoto, recycling your aluminum cans, or using too much toilet paper, when, soon enough, we'll be debating how many hunter-gathers can survive in the scorching deserts of New England or the tropical forests of the Yukon.

The good parent in me, however, screams: How is it possible that we can now contemplate with scientific seriousness whether our children's children will themselves have children?

For a rosier take on the situation, the New York Times (registration required) has an extensive article about the developing gold rush in the newly iceless arctic. In short: yeah we'll all die in like a century or two but in the meantime MAN are some people gonna get filthy stinking rich...

Rita = Monster

From the NHC:

..RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED... WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

Rita's internal pressure has been dropping at record-breaking rates all day. And she's got at least 12 more hours of clear sailing on top of the super-warm "Loop Current," and meteorologically perfect atmospheric conditions. My guess is that she'll be the most intense hurricane ever recorded by morning.

UPDATE: 11pm EDT "RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY..." After she passes over the Loop Current, it sounds like it'll be all about outflow channels and eyewall replacement cycles. Basically, she will probably weaken but could easily maintain Cat 4 into landfall.

UPDATE UPDATE: Rita seems to have peaked last night - forecasts now call for slow but steady weakening through landfall as a 4 or a 3. The track has drifted north and east again, towards Louisiana.

UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE: I know all the forecasters say that big hurricanes have significant wobble on their paths. So this may be premature. But I'm slightly worried that the path Rita is taking shoreward has *already* deviated from the forecast by this much. Blue line is forecast track, Red line is actual:

She's veered that far north - I can't tell the scale exactly, but it's about 30 miles, it looks like - in less than four hours. The forecast landfall was already near the TX/LA border (hopefully and thankfully passing east of Galveston/Houston), so any deviation north and/or east goes into Louisiana. Boo.

I Know... I Know...

I promised no more hurricane stuff. I know I did. It's a compulsion.

The problem is, Tropical Storm Rita keeps curving north.

Over the last several advisories, Rita's eventual landfall point has gone from Mexico just south of Texas, to Texas just north of Mexico, to 1/3 of the way up the coast of Texas, to this morning's update, 3/4 of the way up the coast of Texas.

Towards Louisiana.

The discussion this morning points this out, saying: "MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO..."

Chillingly, Forecaster Knabb goes on to say "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OVER THE GULF...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS."

So the computers are painting an even bleaker picture than the map above indicates. Knabb adds: "IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT RITA COULD AFFECT A LARGE AREA AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK."

So if Rita becomes a Cat. 2 before she even enters the Gulf (which is currently predicted) and rides across the Gulf under an upper-level anti-cyclone - which makes it easier for her to strengthen - and makes landfall somewhere west of New Orleans when the strongest winds and flooding are on the eastern side of a hurricane...

UPDATE: While she's no longer (much) risk to hit New Orleans directly, and she'll probably weaken before landfall, Rita was updated at 2:55pm today to a monstrous Category Five, with maximum sustained wind speeds of ONE HUNDRED SIXTY FIVE MILES PER HOUR. That's a full ten miles per hour ABOVE the threshhold for Cat. 5.

If you're on the Texas coast: leave. Now.

Triple Threat

Wow. How's that for a "Tropical Storm Force Winds" probability chart!

Quite a storm season this year. Keep an eye on the NHC.

Good Night, Irene

My years of addiction to the National Hurricane Center site, coupled with my conviction that some new disaster is always in the offing for New York City, have finally borne fruit:

Tropical Storm Irene is the first tropical cyclone in many years that has the chance of bouncing up along the Atlantic coast and slotting into New York Harbor like an eight ball in the corner pocket.

I mean, it's not *likely.* At all. In fact, there's very little chance for it to happen. And I certainly hope like hell it doesn't happen.

But it does provide the first little frisson of anticipation that some time late next week we could be living a made-for-TNT disaster movie.

[Plus, I wanted to be the first one to use the title for this post, before the newspapers are all over it. w00t!]

UPDATE:

As of 5am today, the line has veered heavily NYC-ward. Another report is due at 11am EST. But for now:

UPDATE 2:

As of 11am, Irene is predicted to drift East and out to sea, but the "Discussion" notes that track prediction after 72 hours is currently more or less impossible.

UPDATE 3:

Ha-HA! I have SAVED us!

UPDATE 4:

Pretty little monster, ain't she? [Thanks to Dave for leaving that in comments...]

London

(photo: Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images - from The Guardian)

Horrifying. Keep London in your thoughts and prayers.

Oh, and New Yorkers? Remember a couple years ago when every time the train stopped in the tunnel you freaked out a little? Yeah, me too. Yay! It's back! I know I've missed it.

UPDATE:

Now this is the spirit. A letter to the terrorists, from the London News Review:

What the fuck do you think you're doing?

This is London. We've dealt with your sort before. You don't try and pull this on us.

Do you have any idea how many times our city has been attacked? Whatever you're trying to do, it's not going to work.

All you've done is end some of our lives, and ruin some more. How is that going to help you? You don't get rewarded for this kind of crap.

And if, as your MO indicates, you're an al-Qaeda group, then you're out of your tiny minds.

Because if this is a message to Tony Blair, we've got news for you. We don't much like our government ourselves, or what they do in our name. But, listen very clearly. We'll deal with that ourselves. We're London, and we've got our own way of doing things, and it doesn't involve tossing bombs around where innocent people are going about their lives.

And that's because we're better than you. Everyone is better than you. Our city works. We rather like it. And we're going to go about our lives. We're going to take care of the lives you ruined. And then we're going to work. And we're going down the pub.

So you can pack up your bombs, put them in your arseholes, and get the fuck out of our city.

Oh Shit

Yeah so Sandra Day O'Connor is retiring from the Supreme Court. Since Rehnquist is right now running at about 40% dead, that means Bush will likely preside over the appointment of not one but two SCOTUS justices.

TWO. Plus Scalia. Plus Thomas. That makes four of nine whose ideology can be expected to sit somewhere to the starboard of Machiavelli.

Plus, why has nobody been talking about Justice Stevens?! The man was born in 1920. NINETEEN TWENTY. Which means... carry the four... he's EIGHTY-FIVE. Meaning unless he can continue to practice until shortly before his 88th birthday, that's another Bush appointee slot opening up.

Look, I'm no ageist, my grandfather played tennis every day until he was 80 and my grandmother would be competent to sit on the Supreme Court right now and she's north of 90. But still. 88 is OLD, dude. I'm just sayin.

Here's the current rundown:

William H. Rehnquist: b. 10/1/1924 - 80 y.o.; Nixon appointee, Reagan nominated for Chief Justice

John Paul Stevens: b. 4/20/1920 - 85 y.o.; Ford appointee

Sandra Day O'Connor: b. 3/26/1930 - 75 y.o.; Reagan appointee

Antonin Scalia: b. 3/11/1936 - 69 y.o.; Reagan appointee

Anthony M. Kennedy: b. 6/23/1936 - 69 y.o.; Reagan appointee

David Hackett Souter: b. 9/17/1939 - 65 y.o.; Bush I appointee

Clarence Thomas: b. 6/23/1948 - 57 y.o.; Bush I appointee

Ruth Bader Ginsburg: b. 3/15/1933 - 72 y.o.; Clinton appointee

Stephen G. Breyer: 8/15/1938 - 66 y.o.; Clinton appointee

So hey everybody! Get ready for what the country will look like under Chief Justice Scalia, with up to three Bush II appointees under him!

UPDATE: I've just heard that Justice Stevens refuses to resign under a Bush administration. So as long as he holds onto his health and faculties, he's determined to make it to 88 on the bench. God be with you, Justice Stevens. And don't you go be with God just yet, y'hear?

The Electoral Nightmare

In the past couple days, I have become obsessed with electoral predictors and polling. It's all meaningless, but I like to remind myself that it's entirely possible for Kerry to win.

While futzing with the electoral map at the New York Times (reg. required), I discovered a disturbing possibility. If Kerry takes Ohio and Pennsylvania (which he's currently polling as if he's poised to do) but loses Florida (where Kerry is polling ahead BUT I don't trust the Jebbites as far as I can fling them. Into the ocean. To the sharks.), holds New Mexico, loses Wisconsin but holds Minnesota and Iowa, loses New Hampshire and keeps Maine - then he wins. 270 EV to 268.

BUT.

Maine splits its electors (Colorado may join them if a ballot initiative to do so passes, but the initiative is polling poorly, so prolly not). At the moment, Kerry is polling to take all 4. BUT. If Bush peels off the one district where he polls closest (and sometimes ahead), then he'll get one of Maine's EVs.

And we'll have a tie. 269 EV Kerry, 269 EV Bush. Heaven help us.

At that point, the House of Representatives chooses the President, and the Senate chooses the Vice President. If the GOP continues to hold both, then Bush/Cheney get four more years. If somehow we take both, then Kerry/Edwards take over. If we retake the Senate (possible) but they keep the House (likely): then the country gets four years of Bush/Edwards.

Say WHAT?!

Here it Comes...

This post at Talking Points Memo says it all:

Uh-oh ...

Kerry over Bush 50% to 46% among likely voters...

The talk of the left-leaning blogosphere today is: the GOP has been bloodied, and it's likely to make them mean. Er. Meaner. Expect the level of unsubstantiated attack to go up. Expect the level of misinterpreted statistics to go up. Except spin and bullying and fearmongering to a level we have not yet seen, for the next 26 days.

Because if we expect it, and if we tell everyone we know to expect it, then when it comes we'll be able to jiu-jitsu it against them. They're going to come out swinging freely. We need to stay calm, stay focussed, and only worry about deflecting the blows that are going to do real damage.

The Kerry campaign has gotten to this point, where momentum is truly on their side, by refusing to panic, refusing to become overdramatic, and refusing to be drawn into nasty little tit-for-tats. Rise above the noise and fray and keep talking about the essentials: both on the Pro-Kerry (go to the website if you need talking points) and Anti-Bush sides.

From the Department of "Here We Go Again"

As of 3:45pm, Friday September 24, 2004.

Florida, meet Jeanne. Jeanne, Florida.

Homeland Security

Over at Obsidian Wings (a new entry in the "Political Commentariat" blogroll), Hilzoy has a post that consolidates the current Homeland Security picture. As we watch the administration run on "We Will Keep You Safe and He Won't," this stuff is about the most crucial stuff to get out into people's heads.

The problem being, of course, that as I read it my eye goes to the window across the hall from me, looking down from 34 stories on New York Harbor and all the container ships that sit all day within a couple miles of me, and then I look over to Brooklyn, where our apartment sits on the slope in Park Slope facing the harbor. And then I just start to totally freak the hell out.

One of the things I've liked all along about John Edwards: IMMEDIATELY after 9/11, he began banging the drum about port and chem/nuke plant security. He even managed to do it - sponsoring bills and everything - while simultaneously banging the drum to go to Iraq (yeah... well...). Only the current administration chose to see them as mutually exclusive. Because, of course, one costs Industry money, and one makes money for Industry. Hm.

Ivan the Terrible

Lisa's father's name was Ivan. Without saying anything untoward about Max's departed grandfather, I'll say when we heard Ivan was on the list of hurricane names, we suspected he'd be a doozy.

Thoughts and prayers go out to everyone down there, from those recovering in Grenada, to those in Jamaica, the Caymans, Cuba, and poor damn Florida.

If the hurricane season stays hyperactive, then after Jeanne and Karl we'll get around to - you guessed it - Lisa. Oh my my my.

A CURE for Procrastination?!

Over at Daily Kos, Theoria (who claims to blog on The Tank's T1 line, so he's either a midtown NYC boy, or a theatre boy, or both) says They've discovered that blocking dopamine can make procrastinating monkeys shape up and do more.

Since "They" in this case is the National Institutes of Mental Health (c'mon, you've read Mrs. Frisby and the Rats of NIMH, right? And NO, the movie does NOT count...), I am now terrified of jackbooted thugs holding me down and injecting me with something that will make me stop wasting hours and hours a day online. BASTARDS.

Here's the whole article.

(seriously, if you've never read this, buy it and read it. One of the all-time greats.)

The "Cancelling The Election" Meme

This is going to be a fine line to walk.

For those of you who don't spend an unhealthy chunk of your time trawling in the upper depths of online punditry, this may be news to you: people are VERY hot and bothered about the idea that the Administration will attempt to cancel or postpone the election, either due to security concerns or a terrorist attack.

One edge of this has cracked the mainstream media this weekend, in an article in Newsweek which has been run with most everywhere.

Here are the relevant facts: There's a new commission within the government called the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. The USEAC is headed by a man named DeForest B. Soaries, Jr.

Mr. Soaries wrote a letter to Tom Ridge at Homeland Security, pointing out that after 9/11 New York City suspended primaries that were scheduled that day and that the federal government had no system in place whereby a decision like that could be made at the federal level. Ridge asked the Justice Department to review Soaries' letter.

Further, Soaries wants congress to create emergency legislation giving the USEAC the power to cancel, suspend or postpone the election on a nationwide basis in the event of an emergency.

Keep reading to see where else this issue goes...

Now, the LEFT of the Left is convinced that the Administration intends and has always intended to cancel the election, declare martial law, suspend the Constitution, and remain in power even if it means STAGING a terrorist attack to do it.

Daily Kos is an incredibly valuable online community, where you can garner a mountain of information, hear action plans for how to get and stay involved, and participate in a lively discussion about EVERYTHING.

It's also a hotbed of way-Leftism -- I consider myself "Leftish" (naturally gut-level Lefty but not outrageously doctrinal about it) but next to some of these folks I'm Jesse Helms.

This article at Daily Kos end with a poll, where fully 43% of the respondents - 665 people - said they believed the Administration would either fake or SEND BLACK OPS TO COMMIT a terrorist attack so as to suspend the elections.

You know how sometimes you're at a ballgame, and someone wearing the same cap as you is being such an incredibly loud, drunken asshole that even though he's on your side you're embarassed to be in the stadium with him?

Yeah. So let me get this disavowal out of the way, explicity: I believe that these people are CRAZY AS CAT SHIT.

I think this line of thought is "our" equivalent of those who think 9/11 was committed by Israeli intelligence, or that Clinton was a member of a secret cabal dedicated to turning US sovereignty over to the UN.

Since much of the discussion I had seen had centered around such bunkum as the above, I was paying little attention to this whole meme, ignoring the little voice in my head that was saying "think of how many things you would have dismissed as crazy before..."

One thing that is not debatable: the Administration is using an atmosphere of fear to enhance their chances in November. That's what Tom Ridge's dog and pony show the other day about Al Qaeda planning to disrupt the election was all about. No new data, no specific threat, no raised alert level - just "be scared! Oh, and by the way, Osama wants Kerry to win!"

Another thing that nagged at me: I don't like the name of the "Election Assistance Commission." It sounds too much like the Orwellian doublespeak this Admin goes in for. Plus I'm not a huge fan of how the Bush folks "assist" elections - see Harris, Katherine.

I'm also not a huge fan of said commission being, as is pointed out on this excellent post over at Eschaton, headed up by a Bush crony who just ran an unsuccessful run for congress within the GOP system.

Even so, I couldn't get on board with the far Left's Chicken Littling. I'm in full agreement with this analysis by Kevin Drum.

Then I read this post over at Daily Kos. Seriously, give it a read. It's chilling.

It's chilling specifically because, just as I feel in my gut that this Admin would NOT send Delta Force commandos to blow up a mall in the midwest, I feel in my gut that THIS kind of dirty tricks filth is EXACTLY the kind of thing they WOULD do, and according to this post (and comments after it) already have been doing at a local level.

I'm not saying this would or will happen. I'm not suggesting that you should believe this would or will happen. I am saying read the article take it with a grain or a bushel of salt according to your tendencies, and give it a thought. And if you decide you're concerned, help spread that concern.

And keep an eye on the news.

It can do nothing but good for the country if we're all watching the election very, very closely this time around.

Automatic Circumcision

No, this is not a new Zionist movement - it's a device, which this piece at Gizmodo comes out strongly against (and quite rightly, in my mind).

Max's bris was performed by a mohel who worked the room like Buddy Hackett. Funny, borschty guy who we were quite pleased with, at a trying moment in every new parent's life.

"Don't get excited, Dad," he said to me as he examined Max's mechanics. "It's not the biggest I've seen. But it's got a nice shape."

I haven't had the - ahem - stuff to follow the link on Gizmodo to the page that merits the caveat: "(warning! bloody boy genitals ahoy!)" If you dare, let me know if it's as bad as it sounds.

Earl... Url... Awl...

If you're looking to kill about 20 minutes, read these articles for some background on the current situation with oil prices and production.

Here's Brad DeLong linking to The Economist. (If you like thinking about stuff, please, please, please read Brad DeLong every day).

And here, here and here is Kevin Drum laying out a bigthink smackdown on your brain.

Air Quality in Lower Manhattan

I noticed that I only had one entry under "Stuff to worry about" so I figured I'd try to even it up a bit with this.

I'm not a huge fan of reading paragraphs like this:

Now it turns out that the dust from the WTC attacks was even more toxic than researchers initially realized, and that a wide range of health problems have developed because of exposure to it.

So. Um... yeah.

Stuff to worry about, part I

Here is what I'm currently worried about.

Disclaimer: just because I'm worried about it ain't mean it's gonna happen. Those who know me will recall the number of canned goods I had on hand by December of 1999, just in case Y2K started a new dark ages.

But still.