Procrastinet

Wassup 2008

filed under: Stuff to laugh at

As a 20-something when the first Wassup! ads came out, this hits me where I live.

UPDATE:

For those who need a refresher -

It does seem to be the same guys, for the most part. Awesome.

Dance Off!

filed under: Stuff to laugh at

Oh HELLS yes.

Asking for it AGAIN and AGAIN

filed under: Idle Chatter

Tonight we open ASKING FOR TROUBLE 2008, the biggest baddest A4T in Youngblood's history. 41 short plays, all fully staged, teched, and off book. Thirty-five directors. One hundred and twenty actors.

Wish us luck.

Clap Harder

filed under: Stuff to worry about

I take my eye off the ball for ONE SECOND, I spend ONE MORNING feeling like maybe the fallout from the fiscal meltdown might not be so terrible, and what happens? Third largest stock meltdown (by points) in history, and world markets crater 8-12% overnight. Now DOW futures are off 360+ before the open.

Tinkerbell is flickering. Clap if you believe in fairies.

Danger, Will Robinson

filed under: Stuff to worry about

Man, JUST when I started to relax about the coming finacial apocalypse, the bottom falls out AGAIN. My superstition holds: I have to continue worrying about things to keep them from happening.

With that in mind: a really chilling prospect just occurred to me. The McCain/Palin endgame has become clear: they will paint Barack Obama as an anti-American, possibly terrorist symp, socialist. Period. The end. No more nuance. Their message to their supporters is: Obama is a real danger to this country.

This is intended to sow doubts among the "persuadables." And, incidentally, to ramp up enthusiasm among the base. There's one possible side effect though: a not-insignificant chunk of the base has very clear ideas of how one treats a clear and present danger to one's country.

In ordinary times, I don't think this threat would amount to much. These are not ordinary times. Joe 6 Pack is at least partially convinced that the very fabric of the nation is unravelling (hell, I'm at least partially convinced). Desperate times both call for and allow desperate measures. And now the wingnutosphere is starting to say "the stock market is crashing because Obama is up in the polls."

All of which is to say: my life span has not included a period of violent inter-societal upheaval in America. And I earnestly hope that remains the case. But the field is being plowed by financial collapse, and the seeds are being quite actively sown by the McCain/Palin campaign. Just in time for three weeks filled with earnest, O-clad young liberals tromping around "battleground" states.

So be aware and be safe, young progressive foot soldiers. The opposition doesn't express their frustration the way we do.

I hope-slash-assume I'm wrong, and I can feel Procrastimom writhing that I'm even putting this out into the ether. And maybe it's just watching the DJI plummet waaaay below 9000 that has me thinking apocalyptically. But we are entering territory that no-one of my generation has a point of reference for, and it's got me feeling unsettled.

Oh God Bless Her Isn't She Just ADORABLE?!

filed under: Idle Chatter

There was a point in last night's VP debate where she unleashed the power of her adorability so forcefully it even impressed me. I don't even remember what she said, just that it was gosh-darn adorable. Seriously.

I disagree with almost everything she stands for and I thought it was shameful that a candidate for the 2nd highest office in the land couldn't stray from memorized talking points without babbling like a creek, but she did one batch of verbal baton-twirling - something about Alaska - that was so dazzling that I found myself grinning.

So: Sarah Palin failed to smear the lectern with her own feces (the bar that Mr. Peanuthead had set for her). People who liked her and have watched her Couric flameout in horror got to breathe easier.

That said, two things happened at the debate last night. Sarah Palin reminded people that she's charming but can't talk off script, and Joe Biden beat the living crap out of John McCain.

And Palin's charm was pre-nullified by Tina Fey going "pew pew" in the SNL skit.

Oy

filed under: Stuff to worry about

Overheard at my dayjob:

Attorney: So what is the market doing today?

Client: Honestly? It's capitulation selling. It's accelerating to the downside.

My Stomach Lining: Blurch...

UPDATE:

By request of faithful reader Beeg, a definition of capitulation from Investopedia:

By definition, capitulation means to surrender or give up. In financial circles, this term is used to indicate the point in time when investors have decided to give up on trying to recapture lost gains as a result of falling stock prices. Suppose a stock you own has dropped by 10%. There are two options that can be taken: you can wait it out and hope the stock begins to appreciate, or you can realize the loss by selling the stock. If the majority of investors decides to wait it out, then stock price will likely remain relatively stable. However, if the majority of investors decides to capitulate and give up on the stock, then there will be a sharp decline in its price. When this occurrence is significant across the entire market, it is known as market capitulation.

So basically, "capitulation" is when the money says "aw f*ck it I'm out of here" and the gambler walks away from the table.

That said, the DJIA is up 143 points this morning WE'RE ALL RICH AGAIN!!1!!

Mark-to-Madness

filed under: Hey, What's The Big Idea

Part of the new, "improved," Cartman-and-the-Trapper-Keeper Bailout Plan is the suspension of rules that require Mark-to-Market accounting of securities.

Sure, says Johnny America, whatever you need to do, whatever the hell that means.

So what is mark-to-market, you ask? It's the rule that says, to be counted as an asset, securities have to be valued according to prices at which other similar securities have sold. It's like using comps for a mortgage appraisal.

It's also what is forcing financial institutions to admit that the billions of notional dollars they are keeping on their books ain't worth squatdiddley.

John McCain yesterday spoke of the suspension of Mark-to-Market by saying something like (paraphrasing): "Let's not require the market pricing of securities for which no market exists."

Which, like most hollow talking points, sounds great. "Sure," says Average Listener, "if no market exists for these assets, then it's silly to price them according to the market. You'll undervalue them and kill the holder."

For instance: I recently saw an eBay auction (because I have a sickness) for an original, signed contract for a theater rental, signed by Edwin Booth and Lawrence Barrett. It had a starting bid of $1,800. It did not sell, and received no bids.

That does NOT mean that the contract was worthless, nor does it mean it was not worth $1,800. It just meant there was no market for it, at that moment, on eBay. By Mark-to-Market accounting, one would be forced to conclude "extraordinarily rare original signed documents by 19th Century theater figures are worth less than $1800." Which would be deeply incorrect.

WHY was there no market? There was no market for that contract because it is a unique item with appeal only to a select few collectors. So if you can't locate those few collectors, or if they just don't feel like buying, there is temporarily no market. Pricing it according to a temporary lack of market would be unjust.

BUT.

Securities exist to make money. They are investments. There is No Such Thing as "no market" for money-making instruments.

If they function, there is ALWAYS a market. Which means if there is no market, they are not functioning. IF THEY ARE NOT FUNCTIONING THEY HAVE NO VALUE.

It doesn't help to say "But, but... but they're SUPPOSED to be worth BILLIONS!" If they're not performing, they are not worth billions. Which means yes, the holders will take a loss. That sucks, but there it is.

At Calculated Risk they have a rundown of quotes about the folly of suspending mark-to-market. The best:

"Blaming fair-value accounting for the credit crisis is a lot like going to a doctor for a diagnosis and then blaming him for telling you that you are sick." - analyst Dane Mott, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The current financial meltdown is occurring because securities are on the books of, oh I don't know, EVERYBODY which are *supposed* to be worth trillions of dollars. Because the housing market was supposed to go up 4EVA.

By mark-to-market accounting, if those holders sell some of those trillions, and they sell for $0.10 on the dollar, then they have to go back to the others that they're still holding and devalue them to $0.10 on the dollar. Meaning they don't have trillions anymore. If we suspend those rules, they get to avoid that trauma.

By PRETENDING that they're still worth trillions.

It's the fiscal equivalent of stuffing your fingers into your ears and going "Naaaah naaaah I can't HEAR YOU" when your Mom tries to send you to bed.

As any three year old can tell you, it doesn't work.

UPDATE:

Go read this. It explains it in way more detail than I have, and predicts with clear eyes where this folly could lead.