Procrastinet

I Know... I Know...

filed under: Stuff to worry about

I promised no more hurricane stuff. I know I did. It's a compulsion.

The problem is, Tropical Storm Rita keeps curving north.

Over the last several advisories, Rita's eventual landfall point has gone from Mexico just south of Texas, to Texas just north of Mexico, to 1/3 of the way up the coast of Texas, to this morning's update, 3/4 of the way up the coast of Texas.

Towards Louisiana.

The discussion this morning points this out, saying: "MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO..."

Chillingly, Forecaster Knabb goes on to say "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OVER THE GULF...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS."

So the computers are painting an even bleaker picture than the map above indicates. Knabb adds: "IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT RITA COULD AFFECT A LARGE AREA AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK."

So if Rita becomes a Cat. 2 before she even enters the Gulf (which is currently predicted) and rides across the Gulf under an upper-level anti-cyclone - which makes it easier for her to strengthen - and makes landfall somewhere west of New Orleans when the strongest winds and flooding are on the eastern side of a hurricane...

UPDATE: While she's no longer (much) risk to hit New Orleans directly, and she'll probably weaken before landfall, Rita was updated at 2:55pm today to a monstrous Category Five, with maximum sustained wind speeds of ONE HUNDRED SIXTY FIVE MILES PER HOUR. That's a full ten miles per hour ABOVE the threshhold for Cat. 5.

If you're on the Texas coast: leave. Now.

Posted by rjt at September 19, 2005 11:40 AM