November 03, 2004
All Right, Listen...
filed under: Hey, What's The Big IdeaIt's almost 2:00 am. The race is not over... but Kerry faces a wicked uphill battle, based mostly on that last 8% in Ohio breaking WAY in his favor, and a pile of provisional ballots doing likewise. Can that happen? Sure. Will that happen? Who the frig knows. Probably not.
So let's for the moment stare right into the eyes of defeat. It's possible that tomorrow morning, or 11 days from now when Ohio counts all absentee and provisional ballots, that George W. Bush will have won four more years and that the GOP will have solidified their control over both houses of congress.
It's tempting, as a democrat and member of the "reality based community," to despair in the face of that. I spent several hours this evening in that state of despair. But it's abated now, and I'll tell you why.
If we lose, we will have lost by 2%. People on both sides were so passionate this time around that it's fair to say that 48% or so of the country will be absolutely devastated by this loss. Which pretty much puts the lie to all those self-flagellating cries that it would be far too easy for Democrats and progressives to start uttering: "we're all alone! We'll never prevail! The country has gone evil and stupid! There's no hope for humankind in democracy!"
None of this is true. Many, many states will be decided by less than 5%. Most of the contentious senate races were decided by less than 10%. This is not a devastating, backbreaking defeat by the numbers, no matter what it feels like emotionally.
This country is exceptionally and passionately divided. We spent the years from 2000-2004 living in a country rent painfully down the middle. We're going to spend 2004-2008 that way, too.
If the GOP ends up in decisive control of the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives between now and the mid-term elections in 2006... well they'd better do more good than harm or that 2% will slip away from them.
Chin up.
[UPDATE: Okay, make that 3%. The main point stands.]
Posted by rjt at November 3, 2004 02:06 AM