Procrastinet

More Electoral Hi-JINX!

filed under: Idle Chatter

I can't believe I'm about to link to something I found on Kausfiles. Well, the Boston Red Sox are the World Champions of Baseball, so I guess anything goes in this brave new era. (For those who don't know his work, Mickey Kaus is a supposedly left-ish - and he did end up endorsing Kerry - blogger on Slate who the farther-left fondly refers to as "goatf***er").

Anyway, this article by Matt Glassman at Tech Central Station talks about the electoral chaos that could ensue after an electoral college tie (which would occur, he points out, if all the states break the way they did in 2000 except for Nevada and New Hampshire). His thesis: we could end up with President McCain, or really, President Anybody.

A more intriguing, and potentially more consequential, possibility is an elector "shedding" a vote to a 3rd candidate. In an election thrown to the House, the 12th amendment specifies to choose from the top three electoral vote recipients. In a tie, only Bush and Kerry will have electoral votes, Unless some elector decides to shed his vote, making the outcome 269-268-1. Why would an elector do this?

It's simple. Shedding a vote would still send the election to the House. Currently, the Republicans would handily win a vote between Bush and Kerry. Democratic electors thus have an incentive to get a third candidate on the House ballot -- particularly a centrist who could draw moderate Republicans into a coalition with the House Democrats to defeat Bush. To succeed, it would have to be a prominent moderate Republican, and it would have to be someone willing to attempt a revolt in the Republican party. It would almost have to be John McCain.

While McCain might reject this and throw his support behind Bush, he might seize the opportunity, much like Aaron Burr did in 1800. It would be his chance to reshape the GOP. He has never personally liked Bush. And lest we forget, it could make him president. Certainly there are House GOP members who would prefer a moderate Republican to Bush.

None of this is going to happen. I also don't buy all the McCain-in-Shining-Armor hogwash that seems to crop up periodically. When push comes to shove, he has consistently toed the line.

But it's an interesting read.

Posted by rjt at October 28, 2004 12:48 PM