October 22, 2004
The Electoral Nightmare
filed under: Stuff to worry aboutIn the past couple days, I have become obsessed with electoral predictors and polling. It's all meaningless, but I like to remind myself that it's entirely possible for Kerry to win.
While futzing with the electoral map at the New York Times (reg. required), I discovered a disturbing possibility. If Kerry takes Ohio and Pennsylvania (which he's currently polling as if he's poised to do) but loses Florida (where Kerry is polling ahead BUT I don't trust the Jebbites as far as I can fling them. Into the ocean. To the sharks.), holds New Mexico, loses Wisconsin but holds Minnesota and Iowa, loses New Hampshire and keeps Maine - then he wins. 270 EV to 268.
BUT.
Maine splits its electors (Colorado may join them if a ballot initiative to do so passes, but the initiative is polling poorly, so prolly not). At the moment, Kerry is polling to take all 4. BUT. If Bush peels off the one district where he polls closest (and sometimes ahead), then he'll get one of Maine's EVs.
And we'll have a tie. 269 EV Kerry, 269 EV Bush. Heaven help us.
At that point, the House of Representatives chooses the President, and the Senate chooses the Vice President. If the GOP continues to hold both, then Bush/Cheney get four more years. If somehow we take both, then Kerry/Edwards take over. If we retake the Senate (possible) but they keep the House (likely): then the country gets four years of Bush/Edwards.
Say WHAT?!
Posted by rjt at October 22, 2004 11:01 AM